Tariff Reforms with Rigid Wages

This paper analyses the effects of tariff reforms on welfare and market access in a competitive small open economy that is characterised by involuntary unemployment due to non-market clearing wages that are fixed either in terms of the numeraire or in real terms. We show that recent tariff-reform results can be extended to integrated reforms of tariffs and the wage rate, and that the inherent tension between reforms that increase welfare and market access carry over. We also derive welfare increasing tariff-reform strategies that keep the wage rate constant, and show that this tension may be attenuated.Tariff Reform, Unemployment, Small Open Economy

The Impact of Financial Market Frictions on Trade Flows, Capital Flows and Economic Development

We introduce financial frictions in a two sector model of international trade with heterogeneous agents. The level of specialization in the economy (economic development) depends on the quality of financial institutions. Underdeveloped financial markets prohibit an economy to specialize in sectors where finance is important. Capital flows and international trade are complements when countries differ in the degree of development of their financial sectors. Capital flows to countries with more robust financial institutions which in turn allow their economies to develop sectors that are financially dependent.trade flows, capital flows, financial frictions, economic development

The Impact of Financial Market Frictions on Trade Flows, Capital Flows and Economic Development

We document that, at business cycle frequencies, fluctuations in nominal variables, such as aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates, are substantially more synchronized across countries than fluctuations in real output. To the extent that domestic nominal variables are largely determined by domestic monetary policy, this might seem surprising. We ask if a parsimonious international business cycle model can account for this aspect of cross-country aggregate fluctuations. It can. Due to spillovers of technology shocks across countries, expected future responses of national central banks to fluctuations in domestic output and inflation generate movements in current prices and interest rates that are synchronized across countries even when output is not. Even modest spillovers produce cross-country correlations such as those in the data.International business cycles, prices, interest rates.

Rules of Origin as Commercial Policy Instruments.

This paper examines the role of Rules of Origin as a commercial policy instrument which targets the input composition of imports. Using a three country, partial equilibrium structure, we demonstrate conditions under which the imposition of a binding Rule will be welfare improving for an importer facing either competitive export suppliers or an export monopolist. We also show that employing Rules of Origin in this way would be complementary to, rather than a substitute for, conventional optimal tariffs.

Financial Constraints, the Distribution of Wealth and International Trade

We develop a simple theoretical model to examine the impact of the distribution of wealth on the patterns of trade when capital markets are imperfect. Our model predicts that the dispersion of wealth can be a determinant of comparative advantage for low-income countries with poor financial institutions. We find support for these prediction using export and financial panel data from a large sample of countries.

Trade Liberalisation, Economic Crises and Growth

Many economic reforms are undertaken at a time of economic crisis. But is this a good time to undertake trade reform? In this paper we investigate whether an economic crisis at the time of trade liberalisation affects a country’s subsequent growth performance. We employ threshold regression techniques on five crisis indicators commonly used in the literature, to identify the relevant “crisis values” and to estimate the differential post-liberalisation growth effects in the crisis and non-crisis regimes. We find that the post-liberalisation growth depends on the characteristics of the crisis. Broadly speaking, an internal crisis implies lower growth and an external crisis higher growth relative to the non-crisis regime. These effects appear to be present in both the short and longer runs.Trade liberalisation, Growth, Crises

International Competition, Returns to Skill and Labor Market Adjustment

This paper examines whether increased import competition induces domestic workers to skill upgrade and/or switch industries. The analysis makes use of a large unique longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset that covers virtually all workers and firms in Portugal over the 1986-2000 period. Our identification strategy uses two exogenous changes in the degree of international competition. First, we exploit the strong appreciation of the Portuguese currency in 1989-1992 and pre-existing differences in trade exposure across industries in a differences-in-differences estimation. Second, we make use of changes in industry-specific (source-weighted) real exchange rates. A bivariate probit model is used to analyse the impact of increased international competition on skill-upgrading and/or industry switching. Based on both empirical strategies, and on two different skill definitions, we find strong confirmation for the hypothesis that increased international competition increases the returns to skill and induces skill upgrading.International trade, Skill-upgrading, Labour market adjustment

Institutions and Structural Unemployment: North-South Trade, Openness and Growth

In models of endogenous growth, international trade can impact upon growth by allowing access to the innovative products of other countries. Since developing countries do little if any innovation, it is primarily through trade with developed countries that they profit from higher levels of technological development. In this paper we construct an empirical model to estimate trade flows from the North to the South. Using the results of this model we construct a measure of openess to Northern imports, based on the deviation of actual imports from that predicted by our model.We find that this measure of openness is significantly and robustly related to economic growth, suggesting that trade with advanced countries can facilitate growth through the absorption of advanced technology.

How Does the Productivity of Foreign Direct Investment Spill over to Local Firms in Chinese Manufacturing?

We use a firm-level dataset for Chinese manufacturing, to estimate productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms. The spillover channels considered include inter-firm labour turnover/mobility; vertical input-output linkages; exporting externalities; and horizontal effects. The roles of these channels are dependent on various factors including export propensity, R&D expenditure per capita, employee training, and ownership structure. We find that export of MNEs is the most prominent spillover channel. Labour turnover and horizontal demonstration and competition bring positive spillovers to SOEs but not to local private firms. Vertical linkages are not found to be significant.productivity spillover, foreign direct investment (FDI), labour mobility/turnover, linkages, export

Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers: A Computable General Equilibrium Framework for China

We construct a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the endogenous productivity spillovers from foreign-invested firms to domestic firms, taking the Chinese economy as a case study. The coefficients of four spillover channels are estimated from econometric analysis. The simulations are conducted under two alternative market structures, namely perfect competition and monopolistic competition. Simulation results indicate that the spillover premia are positive in terms of national total output, GDP and welfare. The spillover effect is more prominent when the market structure is relatively monopolistic. FDI spillovers can also result in more product varieties produced by domestic enterprises, and can also help domestic enterprises increase their production scale.productivity spillovers, foreign direct investment, computable general equilibrium models